The Swing State Story: What the Black Vote in the Convention Host State and other Battlegrounds Could Mean for President Obama

You’ve heard the phrases “swing state” and “battleground state.” Basically, they amount to the same thing in an election year: territory that is up for grabs by either the Democrats or the Republicans.

Experts and media outlets provide lists of these states, slicing and dicing the polling and other data to decide which ones are “in play” and which are solidly red or blue.

In 2012, the color that could mean a big difference for the Democrats may actually be black, as in African-American. In short, there are swing states in which high African-American voter turnout is a must for President Obama and other Democratic candidates.

What are the swing states?

There is some variation among the lists that purport to show which states will be battlegrounds. Here’s a sample:

• Politico.com lists ten swing states period.
• The NYTimes.com handles this a bit differently, listing eight “toss up” states, five leaning Democratic, and five leaning Republican.
• CNN takes a similar approach to the NYTimes.com. Its electoral map agrees with the eight toss-ups and shows three states “leaning Obama,” and four “leaning Romney.”

Interestingly, of the three electoral maps, only Politico.com shows North Carolina as a battleground state. The other two consider the Tar Heel state “leaning Romney.”.

Electoral-vote.com tracks political polls to come up with its data for U.S. federal elections. It calls North Carolina “barely GOP.” In 2008, voters in the state went for President Obama.

With its electoral votes, it’s no accident that North Carolina is site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

• Read more: Electoral Votes by State in 2012

Doing the math

As we learned in high school civics class, it’s not the number of states that counts. It’s the number of electoral votes.

Current opinion polls have President Obama and Mitt Romney neck and neck. Yet, doing the math on electoral votes paints a slightly different picture. Taking the swing states out of the equation, the president is sitting in the lead. But those battleground states carry a lot of ammo: about 95 electoral votes up for grabs.

• Read more: How the U.S. elects a president

Asking Acker

Tanya Acker is an attorney and political, social and legal commentator who shares her insights with CNN’s AC360.com and the Huffington Post. (Photo credit T. Acker)

You may have seen Tanya Acker on the news. She is an attorney and political, social and legal commentator who shares her insights with CNN’s AC360.com and the Huffington Post, among others.

“I think Barack Obama is going to win this election, and that one of the big stories afterward will be how money cannot override the voices of actual American people,” Acker predicted. “He will be the first sitting president to be outspent in an election, and he will win nonetheless.”

Edgell: In terms of “battleground” or “swing states,” some lists seem to include North Carolina, the site of the Democratic National Convention. Is North Carolina in play for President Obama and to what degree would African-Americans votes help him win the state?

Acker: North Carolina is definitely in play – recent polling shows the President with a slim 3-point lead there.  Solid African-American turnout will be key to cementing that victory.

Edgell::  In order to stay in office, does the President have to pretty much lock up the black vote in swing states?

Acker: African-American voter turnout will be critical.  Romney is not polling well amongst African-Americans but the issue for the President in the first instance is making sure African-Americans get out and vote.

Edgell: A few of the swing states don’t have large African-American populations; for example, Iowa and Wisconsin. How can the President win these states through support from white voters?

Acker: The President didn’t win the election on the strength of the African-American vote alone and that won’t be the case this election season either. What is critical to his reelection is convincing a wide swath of middle class voters that his policies are best for them and best for the country.

The distinction that he must draw between his candidacy and the other side is that his plan is more in line with the needs of the average American man and woman–regardless of race or creed.

Take the issue of reproductive freedom, for instance:  the President thinks that women should make their own reproductive health decisions while the other side thinks that is a choice that should be left to the state–even in cases of rape. I don’t think white women want to be forced to carry a rapist’s child any more than African-American women do. This is just one of many issues that will impact voters regardless of race.

Edgell: What does the President have to say to convince African-American voters to vote for him again? How much of a tougher sell will earning the black be than in 2008?

Acker: The needs of African-American voters are, for the most part, aligned with those of working and middle class voters of all stripes, and the President’s plan is one that is more focused on those voters than is that of the other side.

African-Americans need economic and educational opportunity just like everyone else does; what the President has to do is to convince voters that his plan is one that will provide those opportunities.

Edgell: Putting swing state lists aside, which states might surprise us on election day, either going for or against the Obama/Biden ticket?

Acker: I think the President is going to do better than expected in those Western states that have tended to be pretty evenly divided in recent election years.

The Patchwork Approach

Dante Chinni is the editor and director of Patchwork Nation, a journalist, and an author.

Another expert we consulted about the role of the African-American vote in 2012 is Dante Chinni, Editor/Director of Patchwork Nation. Launched as means of better understanding the U.S. ahead of the 2008 election, Patchwork Nation provides a demographic and geographic breakdown of the country into 12 different kinds of communities.

“Looking at the vote by county allows anybody to zero and see the circumstances of a particular place,” Chinni told TVC. “We see that communities still matter.”

Among the 12 communities Patchwork Nation monitors are two that include large African-American populations:

• Industrial Metropolis, described as “Densely populated, highly diverse urban centers; incomes trend higher than the national average and voters lean Democratic” and
• Minority Central, “Home to large pockets of black residents but a below average percentage of Hispanics and Asians.” (Chinni admits some of the community names aren’t great: others include Tractor Country and Immigration Nation).

One example of a Minority Central community is Edgecombe County, North Carolina. More than 230 miles from Charlotte, it’s home to about 56,000 people. The 2010 census showed it as 57 percent black and 40 percent white.  Edgecombe County had a jobless rate of more than 17 percent in 2009. Now it’s hovering at about 14 percent.

Chinni said strong African-American voter turnout in Edgecombe County and others with similar demographics could put North Carolina in the win column for President Obama. As Tanya Acker said, regardless of race unemployed and low-income people have a lot in common; so, white voters in a number of communities may also be a factor.

“The 2012 electorate is different than the 2008 electorate,” Chinni said. “There are people who are lower middle class whites who are torn. It’s not so much about race, they don’t know if Obama can fix (the economy) and they look Mitt Romney and they don’t trust him.”

Learn more:

• Tanya M. Acker on TheHuffingtonPost.com
• Our Patchwork Nation: The Surprising Truth About the “Real” America, by Dante Chinni (2010)
• Red and blue states (Wikipedia.com)